Really Factual Numbers

Two funny sets of statistics and use of numbers in the last 2 days.

Dolphin lands on boat
“A woman was crushed and seriously injured yesterday by a dolphin in an accident described by a marine biologist as ‘three million to one‘.” The NZ Herald report yesterday.

3,000,000 to 1.

So my question for  Dr Slooten who gave the quote is how did you work that out? Did you count all the times Dolphins jump over boats and determine it happens every 3 million times. Or is it every 3 million times that Dolphins swim next to boats?

Boatstack will handle a big earth quake.
“The Fort Nautilus boatstack, storing 180 five to 12-metre boats on five levels, is virtually completed, and in front of it the 12 luxury apartments on four levels are reaching the finishing stage.”

"It is not a symmetrical building and we had to do a lot of seismic work. I reckon it will stand a one in 100 year earthquake," said Mr Keogh.

So my question for Mr Keogh. When was the last 100 year earth quake exactly? If it was 96 years ago, I’m not that keen. If it is still standing afterwards will it withstand the tsumani that follows?

Both of these guys were caught off guard I’m sure. Dr Slooten wouldn’t have been expecting some reporter to ring him on boxing day and ask stupid questions about the odds that he would make up answers to. But that’s life.

Budgeting and numbers in business
I have the similar situations at work all the time. What is the Year to Date result looking like (mid way into a month)? Or what is our Year End outturn going to be? Or how much revenue will we do next year?

Most of the time I don’t know, so I look into my theoretical crystal ball and give a number. Sometimes it’s close, other times it 3,000,000 to 1.

What is amazing, is that having given a number (even if it’s a bad one), people seem to feel more comfortable.

People, it would seem, need numbers to make them content regardless of fact.